Shifting lines of power in the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections

The 2025 midterm elections revealed a paradox. On one hand, the map of flipped seats, both gubernatorial and congressional, provides clear evidence that cracks are beginning to form in the decades-old dominance of political dynasties. Several powerful families, long considered politically immovable in their respective strongholds, lost ground. But on the other hand, these shifts, while meaningful, remain isolated. The broader electoral landscape continues to reflect a persistent pattern of dynastic control, with only modest inroads made by alternative forces.

The highlighted provinces and districts on the map point to significant upsets. In Cebu, the defeat of Governor Gwen Garcia ended a long reign by one of the country’s most influential provincial dynasties. In Las Piñas, the Villar family failed to retain their Congressional seat. And in Catanduanes, Albay, and parts of Mindanao, entrenched clans were unseated, often for the first time in decades. These results signal that change is possible, especially where credible challengers and voter dissatisfaction align. But these are exceptions, not yet a sign of widespread transformation.

Nationwide, political dynasties remain deeply embedded. Reports by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) show that 71 of the country’s 82 provincial governments are still held by members of political families. Of these, 18 are classified as "obese" dynasties, each fielding five or more relatives across different races. The normalization of this trend is perhaps more alarming than the numbers themselves. What once required justification is now openly embraced, with many families no longer attempting to conceal their grip on power. In Congress, nearly 80% of lawmakers belong to political clans, as do more than half of all elected local officials. This concentration of political power has wide-reaching implications, not only for democratic accountability, but also for the quality of public service, policy continuity, and economic equity.

In this context, the flipped seats shown on the map should be seen as both promising and fragile. They highlight the potential for democratic openings, but also how rare and hard-fought such breakthroughs remain. Even amid headline-making rivalries, like the bitter feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps, the end result for many was a deepening of their hold on the political system. What changed in 2025 was not the structure of power, but its local texture. The challenge for reform advocates will be to turn these scattered gains into a more sustained, system-wide shift, before entrenched interests once again reassert full control.

The 2025 midterm elections once again brought the Pink base into focus, a network of volunteers, supporters, and civic-minded citizens that first coalesced around Leni Robredo’s 2022 presidential run. She didn’t win that race, but the movement she sparked hasn’t disappeared. In fact, it’s managed to hold together with more endurance, and perhaps more political clarity, than many expected. As the campaign season began, both Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan leaned into that energy, counting on it to help power their Senate comebacks. It was a calculated move, and in many places, especially those where Robredo had polled strongly, it seems to have paid off.

In Camarines Sur, a symbolic and strategic province for the movement, Aquino and Pangilinan dominated the Senate race, boosted not just by local machinery but by a palpable emotional connection to Robredo’s legacy. Their miting de avance in Naga City served as both a campaign finale and a moment of symbolic continuity with the massive pink rallies of 2022. The energy, visuals, and turnout echoed past momentum and showed that the pink movement could still fill public spaces with enthusiasm and purpose.

Other traditional strongholds, such as Quezon, Iloilo, and Albay, also held firm for the tandem. These provinces, which had supported Robredo in 2022, once again delivered favorable results. The consistency of this support suggests that the pink base has transformed from an election-specific phenomenon into a more durable political network, one capable of delivering coordinated outcomes, especially in national races. It also indicates that the memory of the 2022 campaign has not faded but has been actively sustained through local organizing, strategic endorsements, and the credibility of returning candidates.

What’s particularly noteworthy is that this support wasn’t purely symbolic, it translated into top-of-the-race placements. This shows that the pink vote is not only alive, but strategic, concentrated, targeted, and capable of influencing the Senate composition. It remains to be seen how this momentum carries into 2028, but for now, the endurance of the Kakampink vote is no longer a hypothesis, it’s a political reality.

This map presents a telling look at the Duterte-endorsed electoral terrain constructed by former President Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Sara Duterte in the 2025 midterm election. No surprises there, really, since the Duterte-backed "10+2" Senate slate revealed impressive results in the bastions, especially throughout Mindanao. The Davao Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao were strongholds of politics, evidencing the enduring strength of regional networks, name recognition, and long-standing public programs like Bong Go's Malasakit Centers. These, rather than party allegiance or ideological definition, seem to have swayed the voters.

In the rest of the country, though, the situation is more nuanced. In Central Luzon and Metro Manila, and to an even greater extent in Bicol, Panay, and Negros, the slate's performance was far weaker. These are bastions of organized opposition, and the victories indicate that although Duterte's brand is still very strong in strategic places, it is not quite convincing everywhere. The contrast reveals a widening regional divide, what had been a broad national coalition now increasingly looks localized. That aside, the reelection, and better rankings, of Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa indicate a base that, although more concentrated, remains highly mobilized.

The slate’s composite popular vote of 34.1 percent confirms that the Duterte coalition still commands the largest electoral bloc in the Senate. This is significant. Yet it also raises questions about sustainability. Only a handful of endorsed candidates consistently made it into the top twelve across the country. This could suggest that the Duterte coalition’s continued success will depend less on national appeal and more on maintaining and expanding regional machinery. For opposition forces, this evolving dynamic may open opportunities to regain ground, although it remains to be seen whether such gains can be consolidated beyond isolated local victories.

Sara Duterte’s position, meanwhile, is particularly noteworthy. Despite facing impeachment proceedings, she appears to retain substantial political support, potentially even gaining strength through the process. The loyalty to her slate reflects this. Still, the narrowing geography of support is hard to ignore. Sustaining national relevance in the long term will likely require more than legacy and name recognition, it may call for broader coalition building, strategic messaging, and a shift in political posture. Whether or not that happens remains an open question.

What began as a ripple in 2022 with Risa Hontiveros’s Senate run now seems to have taken on a more coherent shape. Not massive, not dominating, but solid. This year, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and even Heidi Mendoza, all Akbayan-backed, managed to carve out real territory, especially in places where progressive politics used to feel like an uphill push. It’s not just that they secured seats, it’s how, and where.

Look closely at the Lingayen-Lucena corridor, every province along that belt, except Navotas City, delivered for at least one progressive candidate. That’s a pattern, not an accident. It suggests a structure is taking hold, perhaps not yet deep rooted. And maybe more interesting than the wins themselves is what they say about messaging, the campaigns focused on food security, education, and anti-corruption.

The map also shows a few bright spots beyond Luzon, though more scattered. Parts of the Visayas, Negros Occidental especially, showed up. So did sections of Northern Mindanao, and curiously, even some areas near Davao. It's uneven, and maybe too early to call a trend, but still, it hints at a broader reach. These aren’t the usual strongholds for progressives. So when even a few places in those regions break the pattern, you have to wonder, is something shifting? Or is it just candidate-specific appeal? Hard to say.

What does seem clearer is that this bloc, Aquino and Pangilinan, plus Hontiveros still in place, now forms a viable, visible opposition in the Senate. Not dominant, but not marginal either. Their role could be particularly crucial, especially with the political temperature rising over the looming impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Whether this progressive momentum carries through to 2028 is another matter entirely. But for now, what we’re seeing isn’t just survival, it’s slow but steady traction. And in a political landscape still largely shaped by dynasties and populist personalities, that’s not nothing.

The Gendered Power map presents an encouraging yet still complicated picture of women’s political participation in the 2025 elections. On paper, the numbers are moving in the right direction: 31 women won gubernatorial or independent city mayoral races, six more than in 2022, and 72 women secured congressional seats, a modest but meaningful gain. But the overall share remains small, especially when viewed against the backdrop of a female majority electorate. Women make up more than half of registered voters in the Philippines, yet they continue to represent only about one in five candidates nationwide. That gap, that mismatch between potential and actual representation, still looms large.

What’s particularly striking in the maps is how much of the change comes not just from women keeping hold of positions, but from women stepping into roles previously held by men. The provinces in orange, places where women won seats from male predecessors, signal something worth paying attention to. While the hope is these are not just women warming the seats for their male relatives or hand me down dynastic transfers. At least in a few cases, they point to actual openings. Whether those are the result of shifting voter attitudes, better organized local campaigns, or maybe just the right candidate running at the right time... it's hard to say definitively. But they’re worth watching.

At the same time, there are reminders that progress remains uneven. Several provinces once led by women have now shifted back to male leadership, colored in purple on the map. It's difficult not to wonder what happened there. Were those losses a result of poor performance? Was it simply about party machinery, or the lack of a viable female successor? The answers likely vary from case to case. And the broader point is that gains are fragile. Women may win a seat this cycle, only to lose it the next, unless there’s a stronger, more sustained effort to build leadership pipelines and address the structural barriers that persist beneath the surface.

Still, if there’s a takeaway here, it’s that representation is slowly becoming more visible and more complex. It's no longer just about a few high profile women in national office, which can sometimes obscure how limited overall representation still is. This map, in its detail, challenges that illusion. It doesn’t suggest we’ve arrived, not by a long shot, but it does show movement. And perhaps more importantly, it forces us to ask different kinds of questions, not only about who wins, but how, where, and for how long.

This election map looks at the spaces where Akbayan enhanced its 2025 election performance versus 2022, superimposed on Chel Diokno's 2022 senatorial bailiwicks. Notably, Diokno’s strongest showings came from youth-heavy, urbanized areas, many of which also delivered increased support for Akbayan. There is considerable overlap in areas like Metro Manila, CALABARZON, and portions of Central Luzon, indicating perhaps a convergence of Diokno's constituency and a renewed focus on progressive party-list representation.

Although the correlation is imperfect, the trend speaks volumes. Did Diokno’s credibility among first-time and student voters help galvanize turnout for Akbayan? Or do we see evidence of a wider, more impromptu resurfacing of support for progressive causes? The data will not tell us for certain, but it very much suggests an evolving political landscape, one shaped increasingly by generational shifts, localized campaigns, and post pandemic political reengagement. It’s a trend worth watching closely as we move toward 2028.

For those working toward democratic deepening and inclusive political participation, these overlaps hint at the potential for progressive coalition building beyond individual campaigns. As we approach 2028, the question is not just whether progressive candidates will rise, but whether the groundwork is being laid for more durable, citizen driven movements.